Between the 25th of February and the 11th of March, Nigerians will head to the polls to cast their votes for various political candidates and parties in the presidential, national assembly, and gubernatorial elections. Gatefield, in partnership with AnvarieTech, conducted an online survey to determine the top development priority issues and social factors that would influence voters’ decisions in the upcoming elections in Nigeria.
These are the issues that would influence the vote in Nigeria’s upcoming elections.
- Security is the most important issue for Nigerians
On an overall basis, more than half of the respondents picked security (56%) as their most important electoral issue that will influence their votes. Economy (21%) was the second most important issue to our respondents, and Human Rights and Strong Institutions (6%) and Education (6%) tied as the third most important voting issue for our respondents.
Our respondents ranked health (1.2%), women’s development (1.2%), and infrastructural development (1.8%) as the least important voting issues.
Voter priority issues were different between demographic groups, particularly along geographical and gender lines. The economy was ranked as the most important issue by respondents from the South West, while security was ranked as the most important issue by those from the North East.
Security was a priority issue for female respondents more than for male respondents. The economy was a bigger priority in influencing their electoral issues than for women.
- Nigerians are overwhelmingly voting for the candidate ahead of party
An overwhelming majority of our respondents (97%) across all groups responded that the quality and characteristics of the individual candidate on the ballot will take precedence over political party identity in their voting considerations.
- Religion is a greater factor than ethnicity in voter considerations
About 30% of our respondents consider religion to be a significant issue in determining their voting choices. Only 7% of respondents considered ethnicity and tribal affiliation as important factors influencing their voting decisions in comparison.
Respondents from the North Central region had the highest leaning towards religious considerations. For respondents from the Southwest, religion was the least important factor.
What it means
The prevalence of security challenges, including insecurity, kidnapping, and banditry, and a struggling economy characterised by high unemployment rates (33.3%), inflation (21.1%), and extreme poverty (85 million Nigerians), are deciding factors in the upcoming elections. Young people who are most challenged by these issues will most likely take out their frustrations at the polls by voting for a change in government.While political leaders continue to invest a great deal in physical infrastructure to the detriment of investing in social development, our findings showed that Nigerians do not necessarily consider these infrastructural projects high priorities and will prefer a government that directly impacts their livelihoods. Voters will most likely favor candidates with a clear-cut plan for improving their economic condition, safety, and wellbeing.Nigerian citizens do not prioritise women’s issues, education, and healthcare as much as expected. Low interest in these issues reflects weak government investment in these categories, leading to low levels of trust and demand for healthcare and social services. This is reflected in the meagre annual investment in human capital development by the Nigerian government, at about $220 per citizen, one of the lowest rates in the world. Greater advocacy is required to draw attention to these priorities.
How we did this
From February 7 and February 19, 2023, 167 participants of communities of people engaged in social and political issues took part in a web-based poll. 80% of people surveyed said they planned to cast a ballot in the upcoming elections. Respondents were questioned on important social issues, including ethnicity and religion, and voting-related social factors.
The majority of poll respondents (92%) were young Nigerians between the ages of 18 and 35, who accounted for 80% of newly registered voters. Women (53%) and men (47%) equally responded to the survey, ensuring nearly equal representation of the gender categories. North Central (26%), South South (18%), South East (16%), North East (14%), Northwest (13%), South West (13%), and North East (10%) were among the six geopolitical zones of Nigeria that were covered by the poll.
